ROTTEN TOMATOES: Box Office Guru Wrapup: Transformers and Ice Age Tie for Top Spot

Box Office Guru Wrapup: Transformers and Ice Age Tie for Top Spot

Public Enemies opens solid.

by Gitesh Pandya | July 05, 2009

The Independence Day holiday frame saw a rare tie for first place as Paramount and Fox both reported a $42.5M estimate for the Friday-to-Sunday span for their summer sequels Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, respectively. Final grosses to be reported on Monday will determine the true box office champ. Universal's gangster drama Public Enemies opened in third with strong results as studios provided many different moviegoing options which ticket buyers were excited to see.

The robots of Transformers dropped a steep 61% in the second weekend giving Paramount an eye-popping $293.5M total after just 12 days. That puts Michael Bay's tentpole pic at number 30 on the all-time domestic blockbusters list tied with 1999's The Sixth Sense. Ticket prices, of course, were much lower a decade ago when Haley Joel Osment was seeing dead people. Fallen also leaped past Pixar's Up to become this year's largest grosser and will top the $300M mark on Monday or Tuesday.

Saturday's Fourth of July holiday hit Transformers and all movies hard since outdoor activities take people away from the multiplexes. With Friday being a day off for most people, ticket sales for the top ten surged to $63M. Saturday fell a sharp 36% to $40M while Sunday is expected to bounce back with a 23% jump to $50M. Compared to the Optimus Prime pic's daily grosses from last weekend, Friday dropped 51%, Saturday tumbled 73%, and Sunday is estimated to fall by 57%. Revenge of the Fallen could find its way to a jaw-dropping domestic final of $380-390M.

Fox also reported a $42.5M Friday-to-Sunday estimate for its new 3D animated picture Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs with a healthy $67.5M in ticket sales since opening on Wednesday. The PG-rated film averaged $10,368 from 4,099 sites over the three-day weekend period. Despite three years of ticket price increases and extra surcharges theaters are collecting for the 3D presentation, the toon basically needed five days to gross what its predecessor Ice Age: The Meltdown did in its first three days. That film bowed in March 2006 with $68M from 3,964 theaters on its way to $195.3M. Pixar's 3D flick Up grossed a similar $68.1M in its first three days.

Mature audiences spent some cash too this holiday weekend. Johnny Depp's gangster drama Public Enemies attracted a solid turnout opening in third place with an estimated $26.2M over the weekend and $41M over the five days since its Wednesday launch. The Universal release averaged a strong $7,850 from 3,334 locations over the weekend. The performance was on par with past R-rated star-driven summer dramas from director Michael Mann. Collateral bowed to $24.7M in 2004 while 2006's Miami Vice opened to $25.7M. Both launched on a Friday so comparisons are not exact. Final grosses for those two reached $100M and $63.5M, respectively.

Co-starring Christian Bale, Enemies earned good but not stellar reviews from critics. With so many films playing to kids and teens at the moment, the studio connected with older adults looking for serious fare over the holiday weekend. Men made up 53% of the audience while the CinemaScore grade was a so-so B.

Two comedies aimed at adult audiences followed with the best holds in the top ten. The Sandra Bullock-Ryan Reynolds pic The Proposal dipped only 31% to an estimated $12.8M boosting the 17-day tally to $94.2M. The Hangover broke the $200M mark over the weekend. The raunchy comedy collected an estimated $10.4M, off only 39%, pushing its total to $204.2M.

Pixar's Up upped its total to a sensational $264.9M following its estimated $6.6M take in its sixth frame. With Ice Age marching into multiplexes and stealing away 3D screens, the flying house flick lost 831 playdates but dropped a reasonable 50%. The film became the second biggest hit ever for the animation leader and trails only Finding Nemo which banked $339.7M in 2003. Up also rose to number 40 on the all-time blockbusters list ranking just behind Shrek which grossed $267.7M in 2001.

The Cameron Diaz-Abigail Breslin tearjerker My Sister's Keeper fell 58% in its second weekend to an estimated $5.3M for seventh place. The Warner Bros. release has grossed $27M in ten days and could find its way to a decent $40M. Sony's hostage thriller The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 fell 54% to an estimated $2.5M lifting the cume to $58.5M.

Two comedies dabbling with history tied for ninth place with an estimated $2.1M each. Sony's Year One tumbled 65% and has taken in $38.1M to date while Fox's Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian dropped 42% for a $167.8M cume.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $152.9M which was up 2% from last year when Hancock opened in the top spot with $62.6M ($103.9M in 5 days); but down 5% from 2007 when Transformers debuted at number one with $70.5M ($155.4M over 6.5 days).

Author: Gitesh Pandaya, Box Office Guru

(1-20 of 59 posts) | Reply

Bigbrother writes:
on Jul 05 2009 07:53 PM

Only drama left this year is if Harry Potter can run down Transformers for highest grossing film. I think Hangover has to be the biggest grosser so far. Expect more R rated comedies.

(Reply to this)

Paints Hz Shirt Red writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:03 PM

i think bruno will make some big bucks.

(Reply to this)

Chris B. writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:05 PM

yeah I can't wait for the new Harry Potter movie. I might go catch Ice Age 3 because I really enjoy 3D movies. I'm hoping to go see Bruno next weekend.

(Reply to this)

Paints Hz Shirt Red writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:05 PM

In reply to this comment (#2521451)
isnt transformers already the highest grossing film this year?

(Reply to this)

Holly Jolly writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:30 PM

I think Avatar has a better chance of beating out Transformers than Harry Potter. But I hope Harry Potter does really well.

(Reply to this)

dalonoman writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:36 PM

In reply to this comment (#2521456)
No, Transformers cost a lot to make, market and distribute. It is just now entering into making a profit. Whereas The Hangover was really cheap to make, market and distribute.

(Reply to this)

ledawg writes:
on Jul 05 2009 08:56 PM

"Transformers" continues to do well, and "Ice Age 3" takes the box-office. Sad. Just sad.

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De4ective Detectiv3 writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:09 PM

Yeah, but what all you people don't realize is that Transformers has already grossed 591 million when you account for the international gross. The Hangover, on the other hand, performed poorly internationally, with its total gross at only about 260million. Comedies don't translate well foreignly speaking.

What I find the most interesting though, is that while Ice Age may have only grossed like 60million so for in America, internationally it has grossed 148million, bringing its total to about 215million, which means it will probably surpass Ups profts(264 domestic 35 foreign = 300million).

Sure there is a lot of factors that play into this, like the actual range of release, but I find it sad that more foriegn audiences haven't discovered Up. As much as people critisize America for being unsophisticated, why is it when we do make something like Up it goes unnoticed?

If you guys are really that interested in box office grosses they do have a website dedicated to them, Boxofficemojo.

(Reply to this)

Gimy writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:09 PM

yeah, what a travesty with Trans 2. i can't believe an entertaining action film is still making that much. moronic public, don't they want to be educated when they go to the theater?? who goes to be entertained?! insanity...

saw Public Enemies, kind of disappointed. bale/depp combo should have easily equaled a high quality movie. just seemed like a slower version of Heat set in the 30's. it was decent but not as good as it should have been with that cast.

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tomwaitsjr writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:11 PM

I'd be surprised if Bruno does as well as Borat, but I do think it may make #1 for the week.

But, no way it beats out THE HANGOVER.

(Reply to this)

redstupid writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:21 PM

Avatar needs to be fu**in titanic to even come close to Transformers whereas Harry Potter can be as sh***y as Transformers and still overtake it.

Ice Age is collecting more overseas because it was released in a lot more countries than Up. In India, for eg, Ice Age was released simultaneously with the world where as Up is no where on the horizon even after all these weeks.

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Bob S. writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:31 PM

Disappointed in PUBLIC ENEMIES' performance. I really wanted to go see it this weekend, but alas ... circumstances prevented me from doing so. Next weekend I might check it out.

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tomwaitsjr writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:44 PM

I agree that Avatar is going to make a mint. Plus, I think it's aiming to make a lot of money via the game.

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BatsInTheBelfry writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:52 PM

This is about what I expected, so no big surprise here. I've been pretty disappointed in the summer movies through the end of June, though I haven't seen Up yet.

However, this past weekend I saw Public Enemies, which was pretty good. I'd give it a B plus. I also saw Moon which is a fantastic, solid A movie. It's my favorite of the year so far, and I highly reccomend watching it.

(Reply to this)

danterandal19 writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:53 PM

"Ice Age 3" was entertaining, but it definitely looked like a movie that would've benefited from the 3D screening, unlike "Up" (so I didn't like the 3D in that film- sue me!).

Way too early to be talking about this, but I'm not feeling the "Avatar" thing. It sounds cool, but there's no hype for the mainstream audience. I have seen nothing on this film, only fleeting glimpses of things, and the movie's coming out in less than 6 months. Besides, it doesn't sound like a movie that will appeal outside of the core Sci-fi/animation loving audience. For it to become the highest-grossing (or even a decently high grossing) film, it has to have an appeal to all moviegoers, and it doesn't seem like it will. Besides, animated action films (especially sci-fi animated films in general) more often than not bomb. For every "Beowulf" (which wasn't a huge success when you take the budget into account), there are 10 "Battle for Terra"s or "Titan A.D."s. that's my say on the matter.

"Harry Potter" in a week and a half. Oh and "Bruno" takes the top spot next week- even if the top movies this week drop by a decent 40%, all "Bruno" needs to win is 26 million, and "Borat" made that in one weekend.

(Reply to this)

The Gentleman writes:
on Jul 05 2009 09:59 PM

What did you want? A 95% second week drop? 61% on a holiday weekend is still pretty steep. The good news is Transformers 2 will not surpass The Dark Knight. That's all I care about really... look at it this way at least the studio will make money so they can fund other better projects.

And, maybe it will Prince Caspian it out a little, forcing the studio to remove Michael Bay and then we have a chance at a GOOD Transformers movie again.

Public Enemies HAD to have Oscar calibur buzz around it and it failed to do so. For being a movie that got a B ranking, and having far less action than Transformers and being a historical movie, it did pretty well IMO.

I am pretty sad that Ice Age did better though, I will give you that.

I don't care about those dumb animals, I would still rather take my kid to Public Enemies in hopes of him or her learning something, over playing it safe with the kiddie crap..

Harry Potter could very well beat Transformers, but I think the buzz on that franchise could be slipping a bit. They could end up around the same gross. HBP might make more though.

*Domestically* the original Transformers outgrossed every HP movie, and the second movie looks to do the same. This would have to be the most popular Harry Potter ever.

I still believe when the smoke clears HP will destroy Transformers 2 when you take the international grosses into account!

With Transformers gunning for 380-390, Harry Potter will need to be HUGE.

(Reply to this)

jaysix writes:
on Jul 05 2009 10:01 PM

To me, The Hangover is my favorite movie of the summer so far. Followed by Star Trek and then NADA...

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Losingsleep writes:
on Jul 05 2009 10:04 PM

The problem with Transformers doing as well as it's doing is that Hollywood will continue to dish out $200 million budgeted mediocre crap. It'd be nice to get a good script in the mix.

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ilnot writes:
on Jul 05 2009 10:07 PM

I hope the two best movies to come out recently, though they are not wide release, Moon and Away We Go can ultimately make a good showing. Having just seen both I definitely recommend them. I have to say I enjoyed Away We Go much more than its Tomatometer rating would suggest. I guess it is just my cup of tea.

(Reply to this)

tomwaitsjr writes:
on Jul 05 2009 10:37 PM

I think the unspoken problem with Hollywood has a lot to do with all the damn people involved in the screenplay, all the re-writes, etc.

When I think of all my favorite films of all time, they usually have one screenwriter (at times the director), 2 max.

(Reply to this)

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